Who Will Win The 2019 Canadian Federal Election

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The 2019 federal election results suggested a majority of Canadians preferred a minority government, but the one they got was different than the one they voted for.

Canada's election sprint has begun, with six whirlwind weeks of nationwide campaigning before voters decide on Oct. 21 whether Liberal Prime Minister Justin Trudeau will get a second mandate. Winning re-election was always going to be hard for Justin Trudeau. History tells us that. But Trudeau has not made it easier for himself. And the partisan terrain Trudeau is contending with in. Federal Election 2019: Trudeau greets supporters at Metro station following election win. For complete coverage of the 2019 Canadian election. In the 2015 federal election, May was re-elected in the riding of Saanich–Gulf Islands, being the only Green Party member to win a seat. Maxime Bernier – People’s Party of Canada leader Maxime Bernier is the founder and current leader of the newly-formed People’s Party of Canada (PPC). Sep 02, 2019. September 2, 2019. 3 minute read A woman enters Maple High School in Vaughan, Ont., to cast her vote in the Canadian federal election on Monday, Oct.

The Liberal Party won what can be described as a “stable minority” with barely a third of the total votes while the NDP and Greens elected far fewer MPs than their share of the vote. As in past elections, our first-past-the-post electoral system distorted the electoral preferences of Canadians.

Who Will Win The 2019 Canadian Federal Election English Language Debate

Canada pays a price for this distortion. Not only is the will of the people not reflected in our Parliament, but certain regions — such as Alberta, where 30 per cent of the population didn’t vote Conservative — will not be represented in government at all. In a proportional representation (PR) electoral system, the Liberals would have won 10 seats in the three Prairie provinces, and the NDP as many as nine.

The distortions in our voting system produce apathy among some voters. No doubt, there are other reasons why people don’t vote, but one is that they don’t feel that their vote will make any difference. In a first-past-the-post system, if you are an NDP voter in a riding where the overall NDP vote is marginal (say, less than 10 per cent), you may feel like voting doesn’t count for much.

The current electoral system also incentivizes “strategic voting,” especially on the political left, in order to prevent a Conservative Party breakthrough. This too is part of our voting system’s distortions.

The voting results in 2019 using the first-past-the-post system distorted the Liberals’ results over much of the country. If we went only by national voter turnout, results from the election would look very different.

Who won the 2019 canadian federal election

Supposing a five per cent cut-off for parties to be represented in the House of Commons, the seat totals using the total national vote would look like something close to this:

In this scenario, eight remaining seats representing just over two per cent of the population who voted for other parties would have to be apportioned to the main parties, using an agreed-upon formula to make fractional numbers into whole seats. The numbers in the chart above round each party’s seat total to the nearest whole seat, but that leaves several parties with over- and under-votes that are fractional and not representative.

There are several formulas for resolving this, the most widely used is what’s known as the D’Hondt method.

Regional differences

In Canada, one could reasonably object that a national proportional representation system would distort regional differences. This might dilute strong regional parties, most obviously the Bloc Québécois, but possibly also the Conservatives, whose Western power base would be diluted by weaker support elsewhere.

Taking the election results and breaking them down by region that would each retain the same number of regional seats chosen proportionally (Atlantic Canada 32; Quebec 78; Ontario 121; Prairies 62; BC 42; the North 3), the results would look something like this:

That would mean reapportioning about 14 other seats, five of which represent Green votes in Québec and on the Prairies, where the Greens would have failed to make the five per cent cut-off for representation (they would have made a three per cent cut off in both regions).

Lower Conservative numbers in the Prairies are made up through higher representation in the Maritimes and Québec, where the Conservative Party would draw part of its caucus, giving it a much more national base.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s announcement that he will govern without a coalition partner, and therefore not have to compromise with any other parties, is precisely what Canadians voted against when they elected a minority Parliament.

With a proportional representation electoral system, Parliament would require a lot more co-operation among major parties to pass legislation and stave off confidence votes. This could also make Parliament more stable and less divisive.

Who Will Win The 2019 Canadian Federal Election

Electing MPs to reflect our values

As the outgoing prime minister, Trudeau would still have had the right to try to form a coalition government, but his options would have been more limited. The NDP would have had a much stronger voice, technically able to govern with either the Conservatives or Liberals.

Canadian

A slightly different vote, however, might have produced a Parliament where more than two parties would have had to work together. It would have also limited the overall size of the Bloc Québécois without completely sidelining them or Québec representatives in any governing coalition.

Minority parliaments require the large national parties to co-operate in order to turn electoral success into parliamentary influence — a feature singularly missing from our current first-past-the-post system. Parliamentary leaders best able to be diplomatic and create relationships across party lines would be the true power brokers — not the PMO alone — of the new parliamentary system.

There are other advantages to moving to proportional representation. The use of party lists would make it easier for parties to represent women, ethnic minorities and other under-represented groups. It would also enable them to draw MPs from a deeper talent pool, more representative of a party’s national support.

Rather than distorting our vote, we might be able to elect parliaments that reflects who we are.

A version of this article was first posted in the ‘NB Media Co-op.’

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Look, we get it: When it comes to the subject of politics, the eyes of most people tend to glaze over, and their attention for the subject is limited, to say the least.

Still, as dry as the topic can sometimes be, the government does make decisions which can affect your daily life, so it never hurts to be at least somewhat informed on exactly who is saying / promising what, and know exactly how – and where – you can make your voice heard.

  • See also: When, where, and what to bring to vote in the federal election
Who Will Win The 2019 Canadian Federal Election

So with that said, let’s take a look at how this process works, who’s involved, and exactly what to remember when it comes to casting your vote.

The party leaders

Justin Trudeau – Liberal Party (Current Prime Minister of Canada)

First elected as leader of the Liberal Party in 2013, Justin Trudeau was elected as Canada’s 23rd Prime Minister in the federal election of 2015. As an MP, he represents the riding of Papineau, Quebec.

Andrew Scheer – Conservative Party Leader

Andrew Scheer

Andrew Scheer is the leader of the Conservative Party and Leader of the Official Opposition – a position he has held since 2017. As an MP, he represents the riding of Regina—Qu’Appell in Saskatchewan – a position he has held since 2004.

Who Will Win The 2019 Canadian Federal Election Results By Riding

Jagmeet Singh – New Democrat Party (NDP) leader

Federal NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh at Daily Hive. (Andrew Bartlett / Daily Hive)

Jagmeet Singh grew up in Scarborough, St. John’s, and Windsor, and served as an Ontario MPP from 2011 until 2017. On October 1st, 2017, he became leader of Canada’s NDP. He currently represents the riding of Burnaby-South.

Elizabeth May – Green Party leader

Who Will Win The 2019 Canadian Federal Election Results By Province

Elizabeth May is the leader of Canada’s Green Party, and MP for Saanich–Gulf Islands. Originally from Cape Breton, May moved to BC in 2010. On May 2, 2011, she became the first member of the Green Party of Canada to be elected as a Member of Parliament. In the 2015 federal election, May was re-elected in the riding of Saanich–Gulf Islands, being the only Green Party member to win a seat.

Maxime Bernier – People’s Party of Canada leader

Maxime Bernier is the founder and current leader of the newly-formed People’s Party of Canada (PPC). He ran in the 2017 Conservative Party of Canada leadership election, and came in a close second behind Andrew Scheer. He resigned from the Conservative Party last summer to create his own party.

Great, so we know who’s gunning for Prime Minister. Now what?

How can I find out more about each party’s plan?

This is a simple question with a simple answer: The internet. (Yes, it’s not just for cat videos and hilarious memes.)

From the economy to the environment, taxes to transit all parties have their platforms and plans laid out in clear text on their website – you just have to know where to look.

…..Or you can just find those links below:

How and where do I vote exactly, and am I even eligible to?

Okay, we’ve got the leaders, and their platforms. Time to get informed and head to the polls. But hold on, who exactly is allowed to “head to the polls” in the first place?

The answer: All Canadian citizens who are at least 18 years old on election day (October 21).

To vote, you must:

  • Be registered. Most electors are already registered. Still, it never hurts to double-check. To make sure you’re on the list – or to register or update your address information, electors can visit elections.ca/register, visit any Elections Canada office across Canada, or call 1-800-463-6868. You can register at any time between now and October 15, at 6 pm.

Who Is Running In The 2019 Canadian Federal Election

But because this is the lazy’s persons guide, we’ll also let you know that if you miss the deadline, you can still they can register at the polls on election day. It’s just that easy.

  • Show proof of your identity and address. There are many different pieces of identification that can be used to prove identity and address. And if you don’s possess any of these? You can still vote if you declare your identity and address in writing and have someone who knows you and who is assigned to your polling station vouch for you. The voucher must be able to prove their identity and address. A person can vouch for only one person (except in long-term care institutions).

On election day polling stations are set up in the riding of every candidate (and we’ll get to ridings in a second), where people can go and easily cast their ballot in person.

Unable to make it to the polls in person? You can vote by mail, at an Elections Canada office, or even at numerous post-secondary institutions across the country.

Living abroad this fall? You can also vote by mail. Canadian citizens who live abroad may apply to be on the International Register of Electors, which will allow them to vote by mail-in special ballot in federal general elections, by-elections and referendums.

Who Will Win The 2019 Canadian Federal Election Results

Simply put, there’s no excuse not to vote.

So am I voting for the party leader directly, or….?

Unless you live in the home riding of the party leader, the short answer is no.

The long answer is that Canada consists of 338 ridings across the country, which equals 338 seats in the House of Commons in Ottawa – Canada’s capital.

In Canada, the electoral system is known as first-past-the-post (FPTP; sometimes FPP), in which voters indicate on a ballot the candidate of their choice, and the candidate who receives the most votes wins. Under a first-past-the-post voting method, the highest polling candidate is elected.

See also:

So if an MP in a particular riding wins a seat in the House of Commons, that counts towards how much power the party will hold once the House of Commons reconvenes. As such, a “majority government” happens when over half the seats in the house are claimed by MPs from one party.

What is a “riding” anyway and how do they work?

An electoral district in Canada is also known as a “riding.”

It is a geographical constituency upon which Canada’s representative democracy is based.

Each federal electoral district returns one Member of Parliament (MP) to the House of Commons of Canada – that person being whoever received the most votes in that riding.

Wait, when’s voting day, again?

Monday, October 21.

Stay tuned to Daily Hive for all the latest from this season’s campaign, including up-to-the-minute results on election night.

Who Won The 2019 Canadian Federal Election

After all, exercising your democratic right to vote still counts as exercising, right?

  • See also: When, where, and what to bring to vote in the federal election